Bearish bias for the week ahead.
After about two years we get a break below range support. This sets my bias in favour of the bears. Be aware that it is not a strong close. We may see a test of the range. Considering the time of the year odds are not in favour of a trend. All this needs to be taken into account when trading. My bias will remain bearish for the week ahead
NZD vs JPY
Bearish bias for the week.
Basically I am bullish above the 80 level. However, market structure suggest we are at resistance. And we have a reversal pattern in form of a Shooting Star. This puts my bias in favour of the bears for the week ahead.
NZD vs CAD
Bearish bias for the week.
Price is moving nicely off the ATH with healthy and strong bearish candles. This is a sign to look for shorts. With the close below the recent hihger low my bias is bearish.
GBP vs USD
Bearish bias for the week.
With the rate hike last week we may see an end to the recent GBP strength. We didn't see GBP pull back to the levels I was eyeing. We see now US strength kick. The last two candles engulf the previous candle. We may have formed a lower high. If that is the case, we should see price move lower and eventually break the swing low. This is not a scenario that is going to happen next week. Nothing is certain. It may never unfold. But with what I see on the charts my bias is bearish for the week ahead.
USDOLLAR
This is just as a reference. I do not trade this index. But I like to incorprate USDOLLAR into my analyis.
USDOLLAR did break out of the range and continues north after a short pause. I was expecting a pullback to the range level. But we do not always get that. We see a strong USDOLLAR. This translates to GBP/USD and EUR/USD weakness.
EUR vs JPY
Mixed signal.
There is no setup. However, price is approaching interesting levels. EUR vs JPY is in the vicinity of resistance. There is still potential for upward movement. But area this asset is now is interesting. We need further information to base trade ideas. It may take time. It may never unfold and move straight up. But there is one thing this chart tells me. I am not looking for longs. This is one way to reduce losses. Reduce possible losses by not taking trades.
SPX500
Mixed signal.
Price made a strong move up which is bullish. But every strong move pulls back. Knowing this and having a Shooting Star at the top of the move shows weakness. Chances are there we may get a pullback. But the trend is bullish. We need more information to formulate a trade setup.
AUD vs JPY
Mixed singal.
Basically I am bullish above 85. But price is at an interesting level and formed a Shooting Star, which is bearish. The weekly close will shed more light.
AUD vs USD
Bearish bias for the week.
Price did bounce nicely off 075 level. This puts my bias in favour of the bears.
EUR vs GBP
Mixed signal.
EUR vs GBP has trouble to move lower. Support did hold true. As long price stays above support I am bullish. But we need more evidence to forumulate a bullish setup.
NZD vs USD
Bearish bias for the week.
Price is starting to form lower highs. The Evening Star Pattern with the last candle engulfing the two bullish candles and closing below 0,70 puts my bias in favour of the bears. My medium term and long term bias are in line.
USD vs CAD
Bullish bias for the week.
The Bullish Engulfing Pattern above 1,30 and off the trend channel support puts my bias in favour of the bulls. It is interesting that the Bullish Engulfing Pattern is forming on top of the former range, which ads more confluence.
US Oil
-Bearish bias for the week.
US Oil was able to violate the recen highs and move high above the yellow zone only to come back and close barely above the yellow zone. This shows weakness and puts my bias in favour of the bears.
NGAS
Bearish bias for the week.
The Bearish Engulfing Pattern off previous resistance puts my bias in favour of the bears.
Happy trading,
TT
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